2026 Predictions
1) Tucho out
2) No peace in Ukraine
3) Ilhan Omar will be deported.
4) Leo will loosen TLM restrictions but not entirely overturn
5) Leo will keep Synodality going for the sake of appearances
6) Bishops will be appointed in US who appear to be opponents of Pres. Trump
7) No women deacons
8) Majority of US Catholics ignore Leo and USCCB on deportation
9) The SSPX will not consecrate a bishop.
10) Fr. Z will not be made a “Monsignor”
2025 Predictions
1) There will not be a papal conclave. [-1 sure got that one wrong]
2) The USCCB will oppose deportations. [+1 like taking candy]
3) At least one SCOTUS justice will retire. [-1]
4) At least one Cardinal will be a source of major scandal. [+1 Becciu etc]
5) Vatican finances will deteriorate even more. [+1 Obviously]
6) The summer will bring another social upheaval like 2020. [+1 Antifa and v. ICE]
7) The US border crisis will be mostly resolved. [+1]
8) Israel will attack Iranian nuclear sites. [+1 with US help]
9) The SSPX will consecrate a bishop. [-1]
10) Fr. Z will not be made a “Monsignor”. [+1 … yet]
SCORE: 4/10
Looking back…
2024 Predictions
2023 Predictions
2022 Predictions
2021 Predictions
2020 Predictions
2019 Predictions
2018 Predictions
2017 Predictions
2016 Predictions
2015 Predictions
2014 Predictions
2013 Predictions
2012 Predictions
2011 Predictions
2010 Predictions
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Thanks Father. I’ve enjoyed these for years!
Any news on books you’ve read or recommend? It’s been a while.
Isn’t the score 7/10?
My guesses on your guesses:
1) Tucho out [Agree]
2) No peace in Ukraine [Agree]
3) Ilhan Omar will be deported. [Disagree]
4) Leo will loosen TLM restrictions but not entirely overturn [Neutral — my bet is TC stays but dispensations are more freely given]
5) Leo will keep Synodality going for the sake of appearances [Agree]
6) Bishops will be appointed in US who appear to be opponents of Pres. Trump [Agree]
7) No women deacons [Agree]
8) Majority of US Catholics ignore Leo and USCCB on deportation [Disagree but not for the religious reasons — Catholics mirror the US population and there’s no discernible distinction between Catholic opinion and the general public. General public already opposes the crackdown based on polling]
9) The SSPX will not consecrate a bishop. [Agree]
10) Fr. Z will not be made a “Monsignor” [Agree]
Pope Leo XIV and the USCCB are like: (1) we should not use our authority to do anything on one’s own initiative; for we should engage in dialogue and listen to others; (2) we should not use capital punishment; for we have to respect the dignity of murderers, rapists, and terrorists; (3) we should not deport illegal immigrants; for we have to let them share in our society. Three examples of pure effeminacy. Masculine men do not require validation from others before taking action, do not let dangerous criminals live, and do not allow intruders to walk all over their territory.
7/10… okay, in one way it is. Thanks.
However, I was just doing the math. -1 +1=0 etc.
Fr. Z,
Could you be wrong, please, about 3, 4, 5 and 10?
[I’d like to be wrong about 10.]
hope you’re right on 1, 3, 7, and 8. hope you’re wrong on 2, 5, 6, 9, and 10
I agree with all of your predictions, except for Omar getting deported. That would be huge if they successfully deport a sitting House representative, but I doubt it will ever happen.
I really hope some of these come true. But I’m at the point in my life where I don’t hold my breath (or hold out much hope) for anything anymore. I was going to add a few predictions of my own, but after typing them out they all looked too depressing, so I deleted them.
Are there ever monsignori, like cardinals, named “in pectore?”
[Ever since Amoris laetitiae I’ve simply discerned that I am already really a Monsignor. Now everyone is obliged to accompany me in my discernment.]
Father Z’s scoring reminds me of one way of scoring a multiple choice test. If there are four choices for a question, then someone who has no idea which answer is correct has a 25% chance of answering correctly. So if a test has 25 questions, one way to grade is to credit 4 points for a correct answer nothing for an unanswered question, and either -1 or -2 for an incorrect answer. The idea is that the mathematical expectation of the score of someone who just guesses is zero.
I slightly disagree with Ionathas. A more forthright statement for (2) would be “We oppose capital punishment because we do not respect the dignity of murder victims and their families and we do not care about the souls of both the murderers and the family members of the victims.”
On a lighter note number 3 could be restated as ”We oppose deportation of illegal immigrants because they don’t go to the VO mass.”
4) Leo will loosen TLM restrictions but not entirely overturn
I don’t think this one will happen in 2026 — it’s too soon. I hope I’m wrong.
Prediction 4 reminded me that I had not checked in on “Let’s Sing with the Pope” for a while – Credo III was uploaded 4 December – with a note that two more (and only two?) were planned: one each in January and February.
My Zoomer children came up with: 1) Jordan Peterson and Joe Rogan will be received into the Catholic Church and 2) Pope Leo will make some reference to “Brain rot.”
4) A meaningful degree of informal loosening via readily granting petitions for the TLM in parish churches, or private conversations with bishops or through the nuncios to encourage permissiveness would be sufficient for credit in my book, even if there is not yet any declaration to overtly roll back some restrictions.
2) Agreed, but the current signs on this one leave little to guess at other than whether Russia’s economy reaches a tipping point that forces them to the peace table.
The Ukrainian people still aren’t interested in being re-conquered, and unfortunately for them, too many of the people trying to be involved in various ways from the outside in ending the war are studiously ignoring what Putin is openly saying in Russia. He continually reiterates in domestic meetings his demands for treaty requirements that Ukraine be too weak to defend itself if Russia violates a peace treaty, be banned from receiving security guarantees to ensure a treaty holds, that they surrender territory amounting to a theater-wide breach through their most important defenses, and that Russia be given effectively a formal right to veto the results of Ukrainian elections (that is, at its heart, what Putin means by “de-Nazification”). Putin has multiple times in the last couple of weeks explicitly said he will continue the war unless he receives those things.
But then Putin turns around to face west and says he wants peace, and somehow we collectively conclude that cheap platitude to us overrules what he says to his own people. Therefore, if everyone is nice to Russia and pressures even more concessions from Ukraine, then Russia will agree to much less than what they just agreed among themselves is the minimum to even begin cease fire negotiations, much less actually arrive at lasting peace.
There is a Christian relevance to this, as well, even beyond the general desire for peace, as the Russian Orthodox Church has not retracted their official declaration that the invasion of Ukraine constitutes a holy war, based on the argument that the Ukrainian people lack a right of self-determination because of what Patriarch Kirill has labeled “the doctrine of the triune Russian people.” I guess he figures if master race type rhetoric isn’t crazy enough, why not add hints of idolatry for good measure?
So unless the rest the world decides to stop backing up every time Russia swings their fist at whoever is closest, it seems to me that the difficult prediction to make won’t be whether they continue hitting Ukraine through 2026. It will be predicting what year they feel ready to see if they can get away with the same rhetoric as an excuse for taking a swing at Moldova, Estonia, or Finland.
#10: why stop there. I think a red hat would be more appropriate. The image of our Lord in the Temple precincts overturning tables is how I’d imagine a Cardinal Z waking into a consistory wearing tactical ballistic nylon field boots and a brace of handi-talkies tuned to Zednet on his fascia.
Bryan: I like the way you think.
However, there is a slight problem…
What’s ZedNet, again? I know I’ve heard of that somewhere.
#4: I suspect that Pope Leo will throw out another bone or so to the TLM, but it will be almost pointless.
4) A meaningful degree of informal loosening via readily granting petitions for the TLM in parish churches, or private conversations with bishops or through the nuncios to encourage permissiveness would be sufficient for credit in my book, even if there is not yet any declaration to overtly roll back some restrictions.
That’s true…as far as it goes. But on the other hand: extreme, harsh, and unreasoned TLM handling by a bishop (usually, in the US) will receive no critique or even response from Rome. And more bishops being appointed by Rome are known to dislike (or hate, let’s not be squeamish) the TLM community than the opposite. And given each of these two indicators, there is little to no reason think that those “private conversations” with nuncios are helping on the TLM side, and more probably not. As long as a priest being “known to be kindly, fatherly, and supportive to TLM” is treated as a mark against his rising – by his pastor, the deanery, the chancery, the bishop, or the nuncio – even if disguised under the framework of “we don’t want mixed messages, and we don’t want to get complaints from N.O. lovers” rather than as outright hatred, then the whole apparatus of the Church will be employed against TLM. The pope would have to make LOTS of heads roll in the Vatican and in nuncio offices to even start to unwind this. Until that, anything Leo says in words to soften TC will have extremely minimal actual impact. I would call it a 50-50 guess as to whether that’s his actual intent.
I still think You will be made a Monsignor.
You left out Bishop McButterpants becoming an Archbishop.
@Not: While we’re at it, how about predicting that Bishop McButterpants becomes the new Archbishop of Chicago?
@Fr. Z: (or shall I say “Monsignor Z?): Allow me to walk together with you in your internal forum discernment about feeling like a Monsignor. Maybe you could upload some podcasts on “monsignorality”?